Veteran British statistician and author of numerous books ranging across his field of expertise, David Spiegelhalter has now penned his magnum opus. The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck sums up a lifetime’s thinking on uncertainty, lack of knowledge, basic probability theory, randomness, fortune/luck, risk, prediction, and much more. With impeccable clarity he teaches even as he illuminates with fascinating examples, major and minor, real world and theoretical, many of them drawn from his own experience. His cool, deft prose is a delight to read. As an ex-actuary, I thought I was an expert on risk and analytics, but it turns out I had only a shallow grasp on the philosophical and intellectual underpinnings of my field. Anyone enjoying the first thirteen chapters will emerge with a clear handle on the myriad aspects of this intoxicating field, often picking up numerical fluency, and even then the adventure is incomplete. After teaching, Spiegelhalter spends two chapters on the best practices (according to him but it seems so sensible) of communication of uncertainty, risk, and advice and also the job of rational decision-making. The Art of Uncertainty will form, I am certain, part of the core library of any student of statistics or analytics.
Book, movie/show, and album reviews
